Maersk Reports Strong 2024, Red Sea Uncertainty Looms

The container shipping industry recorded its third most profitable year in history in 2024, and Maersk, Denmark’s largest shipping company, also marked its third-best financial year in its 121-year history. However, geopolitical tensions in the Red Sea could be the deciding factor between profit and loss in 2025, the company warned.

Maersk reported an EBIT of $6.5 billion for 2024 and projected global container volume growth of approximately 4% in 2025. Despite this growth forecast, the company emphasized that the key determinant of profitability this year will be the situation in the Red Sea.

Houthi rebel attacks on merchant vessels have halted, coinciding with peace efforts between Israel and Hamas, and no incidents have been reported in 2025 so far. However, most shipping lines have yet to resume using the Suez Canal route between Asia and Europe, keeping uncertainty high.

Maersk’s EBIT forecast for 2025 ranges between $0 and $3 billion, depending on whether the Red Sea route reopens in mid-2025 or later in the year. The company also noted that macroeconomic uncertainties, including freight rate fluctuations and demand shifts, could impact overall performance.

According to data from Jefferies, container ship transits through the Suez Canal fell 90% in 2024 compared to 2023. If the Red Sea route reopens, S&P Global estimates suggest this could restore 6% to 8% of container vessel capacity, as shorter transit times enable more efficient fleet utilization. At the same time, new container ships set to enter service over the next three years will increase capacity by nearly 24%.

Maersk’s CEO, Vincent Clerc, emphasized the company’s ability to support customers amid ongoing geopolitical disruptions, stating that resilient supply chains are more critical than ever.

Meanwhile, Maersk announced a 12-month share buyback program worth up to DKK 14.4 billion ($2.01 billion). According to the company, the repurchased shares will eventually be canceled to optimize its capital structure.

Additionally, Maersk has recently launched the Gemini Cooperation with Hapag-Lloyd, a new alliance covering major east-west trade routes. The goal is to establish a highly reliable ocean network with schedule reliability above 90% once fully operational.