Analysts Predict Decline in Asia-Europe Freight Rates by 2025

Analysts from the Asia-based container consultancy Linerlytica forecast a steep drop in box freight rates from Asia to Europe, expecting prices to plummet by over 70% by June of next year, based on current trends in the Shanghai futures market.

The Containerized Freight Index Futures (CoFIF), which has been traded on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange—a branch of the Shanghai Futures Exchange—for the past year, reflects these predictions.

Linerlytica’s latest market update suggests that while this anticipated decline is not as dramatic as the sharp rate drop witnessed at the end of 2022, the current futures prices indicate a steady downward trend over the next 12 months.

The update also notes that a rebound is unlikely before the end of this year, with no expectations of a rate surge similar to the one that followed the Chinese New Year in 2025.

Efforts by carriers to stabilize the rates have so far been unsuccessful. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) has fallen by 12% on routes to North Europe since its peak in July, with a notable 7.3% drop last week, which contrasts with the more modest week-over-week declines of 1% to 3% observed in the previous month.

HSBC also commented on the situation in a recent freight market report, stating, “Europe/Med rates will likely continue to soften due to the increase in capacity as newbuild vessels continue to be put in operation.”