Shipping Emissions Skyrocket Due to Cape Route Diversions

The recent shift in maritime trade routes between Asia and Europe, triggered by the Houthi intervention in the Gaza war, is significantly impacting the shipping industry's carbon footprint. A recent study indicates that CO2 emissions per container could potentially increase by more than five times.

With the growing threat posed by the Houthis from Yemen, who have targeted approximately 35 merchant ships with drones and missiles since November and even hijacked a car carrier, vessels of various types are opting to navigate via the Cape of Good Hope instead of risking transit through the Red Sea.

Current statistics from Clarksons Research reveal a stark decrease in ship arrivals in the Gulf of Aden, showing a 65% reduction compared to 2023. The decline is evident across various types of vessels: container ships are down by 90%, tankers by 45%, gas carriers by 90%, and bulk carriers by approximately 30%.

Under normal circumstances, a container ship would take about 31 days to cover the 10,000 nautical miles from Shenzhen to Rotterdam via the Suez Canal. However, if the journey is rerouted through southern Africa, it extends to over 13,000 nautical miles and takes at least 41 days.

Danish consultancy Sea-Intelligence has conducted a study, published yesterday, that calculates the increase in CO2 emissions resulting from these longer journeys. The study takes into account the extended sailing distances, the necessity for higher speeds, and the probable use of smaller ships on the southern African route. According to their findings, CO2 emissions per TEU (twenty-foot equivalent unit) could surge by 31 to 575%.

These prolonged voyages are also affecting ships' Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII) and their compliance with the European Union's Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS).

Moreover, Clarksons Research has been examining the overall shift in tonne-mile demand for 2024 due to the crisis in Red Sea shipping. For context, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing EU ban on Russian oil products resulted in a 5.5% increase in demand for product tanker tonne-mile. According to Clarksons, the most significant increases in tonne-mile demand due to rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope are expected for container ships and car carriers.